Accuracy scoreboard
Proof for the model itself. Every finished game is re-projected using only what was known before that week, then compared with what actually happened (PPR).
Live track record
Every morning, before kickoff, the projections are saved and locked. After the games, the saved numbers are compared with what happened. Nobody can edit them afterward, so this is the honest scoreboard.
497 projections saved so far. Results appear here as soon as those games are played.
The matchup model beat a plain season average by 1.5 points per player-game. Players the model liked most scored 9.4 more points than the ones it liked least. Correlation between projection and result: 0.56. Average bias: +1.3 points (positive = projections ran high).
Early in the season this is a small sample and Vegas, weather and injury adjustments are not part of the backtest, since those need historical snapshots. It will get more convincing every week.
| Position | Tested | Model miss | Avg miss | Corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 30 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 0.39 |
| RB | 35 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 0.64 |
| WR | 62 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 0.62 |
| TE | 24 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 0.36 |
| K | 26 | 4.0 | 5.0 | -0.15 |