Ks vs Indianapolis Colts
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Tyler Loop | 2 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 5 | 14.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Harrison Butker | 4 | 5 | 2 | 46 | 3 | 17.0 |
| Average | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 51.5 | 4.0 | 15.5 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 51.5 | 4.0 | 15.5 | ||
| High | 4 | 5 | 2 | 57 | 5 | 17.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 3 | 14.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Ka'imi Fairbairn should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ka'imi Fairbairn has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ka'imi Fairbairn will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ka'imi Fairbairn's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ka'imi Fairbairn usually produces.
Projected is Ka'imi Fairbairn's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 4 | 9.0 |
| 2 | CIN | 2 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Fairbairn avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 51.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | |
| Colts K1 avg | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 51.5 | 4.0 | 15.5 | |
| Difference | +1.5 | +1.5 | +1.0 | +0.0 | +2.0 | +7.5 | |
| Projected as K1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 67.0 | 2.6 | 13.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Fairbairn averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ka'imi FairbairnMedium confidence · 14.2 proj ptsMust Start
- Ka'imi Fairbairn averages 8.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 7.9) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Colts have allowed 15.5 points to K1s over 2 games (+83% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +5%: Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.5); Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Projection: 14.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.5 and a top-tier one about 14.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKa'imi Fairbairn vs the Colts
Prediction for Ka'imi Fairbairn
Nobody knows which slot Ka'imi Fairbairn will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 13.5 points for Ka'imi Fairbairn if playing as a K1. Ka'imi Fairbairn has averaged 8.0 over 2 games, and the Colts have given up 15.5 to K1s (+83% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ka'imi Fairbairn scored: Wk 1 9.0, Wk 2 7.0. Average 8.0; weighted toward recent games it is 10.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Colts allowed 15.5 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is +83%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 10.4 x 1.30 = 13.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ka'imi Fairbairn is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.1 points, leaning on Ka'imi Fairbairn's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 3.0 field goals made, 3.5 field goal attempts and 4.0 extra points against the Colts across 2 games.
- The Colts allow 15.5 PPR points to K1s, +83% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.0 to 17.0 (median 15.5).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.