Ks vs New York Giants
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | Brandon Aubrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| Average | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Median | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| High | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Harrison Mevis should do vs the GiantsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Harrison Mevis has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Harrison Mevis will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Harrison Mevis's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Harrison Mevis usually produces.
Projected is Harrison Mevis's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| Mevis avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| Giants K1 avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | |
| Projected as K1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 5.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mevis averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Harrison MevisLow confidence · 5.7 proj ptsSit
- Harrison Mevis averages 1.0 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 1.0) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Giants have allowed 2.0 points to K1s over 1 game (-76% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -19% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.1) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +10%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 27.0 points for LA (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Projection: 5.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.5 and a top-tier one about 14.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreHarrison Mevis vs the Giants
Prediction for Harrison Mevis
Nobody knows which slot Harrison Mevis will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 5.2 points for Harrison Mevis if playing as a K1. Harrison Mevis has averaged 1.0 over 1 game, and the Giants have given up 2.0 to K1s (-76% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Harrison Mevis scored: Wk 1 1.0. Average 1.0; weighted toward recent games it is 6.4.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Giants allowed 2.0 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is -76%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -19% adjustment (x0.81).
4. Result. 6.4 x 0.81 = 5.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Harrison Mevis is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.1 points, leaning on Harrison Mevis's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 0.0 field goals made, 0.0 field goal attempts and 2.0 extra points against the Giants across 1 game.
- The Giants allow 2.0 PPR points to K1s, -76% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.