QBs vs Miami Dolphins
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Kirk Cousins | 21 | 30 | 160 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 |  SF | Brock Purdy | 20 | 22 | 287 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 28.5 |
| Average | 20.5 | 26.0 | 223.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 21.1 | ||
| Median | 20.5 | 26.0 | 223.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 21.1 | ||
| High | 21 | 30 | 287 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 28.5 | ||
| Low | 20 | 22 | 160 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | 13.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Allen should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Allen has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Allen's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Allen usually produces.
Projected is Josh Allen's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2 | DET | 20 | 31 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 40.8 |
| Allen avg | 20.0 | 30.0 | 291.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 46.0 | 2.0 | 38.2 | |
| Dolphins QB1 avg | 20.5 | 26.0 | 223.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 21.1 | |
| Difference | +0.5 | -4.0 | -67.5 | +0.0 | +1.0 | -6.0 | -34.0 | -1.5 | -17.1 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 22.0 | 33.0 | 320.2 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 50.6 | 2.2 | 33.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allen averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Josh AllenMedium confidence · 33.7 proj ptsMust Start
- Josh Allen averages 38.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 38.5) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Dolphins have allowed 21.1 points to QB1s over 2 games (+25% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (22.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 33.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 18.1 and a top-tier one about 24.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Allen vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Josh Allen
Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 33.7 points for Josh Allen if playing as a QB1. Josh Allen has averaged 38.2 over 2 games, and the Dolphins have given up 21.1 to QB1s (+25% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Allen scored: Wk 1 35.7, Wk 2 40.8. Average 38.2; weighted toward recent games it is 30.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Dolphins allowed 21.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +25%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 30.7 x 1.10 = 33.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Allen is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (33.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 20.2 points, leaning on Josh Allen's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 34.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 223.5 passing yards, 2.5 passing TDs and 12.0 rushing yards against the Dolphins across 2 games.
- The Dolphins allow 21.1 PPR points to QB1s, +25% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.8 to 28.5 (median 21.1).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 150 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.