RBs vs Arizona Cardinals
As of Week 17 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LAC | Omarion Hampton | RB1 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | ||
| 2 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | RB1 | 21 | 92 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.2 |
| Jadarian Price | RB2 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
| George Holani | RB3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
| Average | 10.8 | 41.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | |||
| Median | 12.0 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | |||
| High | 21 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 9.2 | |||
| Low | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ashton Jeanty should do vs the CardinalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cardinals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ashton Jeanty has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cardinals opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ashton Jeanty will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cardinals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ashton Jeanty's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ashton Jeanty usually produces.
Projected is Ashton Jeanty's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cardinals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 23 | 102 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 32.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 21 | 48 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10.3 |
| Jeanty avg | 22.0 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 21.5 | |
| Cardinals All avg | 10.8 | 41.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 5.2 | |
| Difference | -11.2 | -33.2 | +0.2 | -5.7 | -4.6 | -28.0 | -1.0 | -16.3 | |
| Projected | 18.1 | 61.8 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 24.7 | 0.8 | 14.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jeanty averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ashton JeantyMedium confidence · 14.3 proj ptsStart
Ashton Jeanty usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Ashton Jeanty averages 21.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 20.3) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Cardinals have allowed 8.8 points to RB1s over 2 games (-44% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -18% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 14.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAshton Jeanty vs the Cardinals
Prediction for Ashton Jeanty
Nobody knows which slot Ashton Jeanty will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cardinals.
I predict about 14.3 points for Ashton Jeanty if playing as a RB1. Ashton Jeanty has averaged 21.5 over 2 games, and the Cardinals have given up 8.8 to RB1s (-44% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ashton Jeanty scored: Wk 1 32.7, Wk 2 10.3. Average 21.5; weighted toward recent games it is 17.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Cardinals allowed 8.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is -44%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -18% adjustment (x0.82).
4. Result. 17.3 x 0.82 = 14.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ashton Jeanty is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.6 points, leaning on Ashton Jeanty's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 10.8 carries, 41.8 rushing yards and 0.4 receptions per player-game against the Cardinals across 2 games.
- The Cardinals allow 12.9 PPR points to the position per game, -38% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Emanuel Wilson (21 car, 92 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 10.8 vs 8.3; rush yds 41.8 vs 29.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, George Holani (4 car, 13 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 10.8 vs 12.5; rush yds 41.8 vs 49.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 5 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.9 to 9.2 (median 5.0).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 1 of 5 player-games (20%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.