RBs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 16 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| 2 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| Average | 18.0 | 56.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 26.1 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 56.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 26.1 | ||
| High | 20 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 28.9 | ||
| Low | 16 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 23.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonah Coleman should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonah Coleman has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonah Coleman's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonah Coleman usually produces.
Projected is Jonah Coleman's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JAX | 10 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 14.8 |
| Coleman avg | 10.0 | 39.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 14.8 | |
| Bills RB2 avg | 5.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | -5.0 | -14.5 | -1.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -13.5 | +0.0 | -10.8 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 9.4 | 36.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 13.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Coleman averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jonah ColemanLow confidence · 18.8 proj ptsStart
- Jonah Coleman averages 14.8 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 14.8) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Bills have allowed 26.1 points to RB1s over 2 games (+67% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +27% adjustment.
- Projection: 18.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonah Coleman vs the Bills
Prediction for Jonah Coleman
Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 18.8 points for Jonah Coleman if playing as a RB1. Jonah Coleman has averaged 14.8 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 26.1 to RB1s (+67% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonah Coleman scored: Wk 2 14.8. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 14.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 26.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +67%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +27% adjustment (x1.27).
4. Result. 14.8 x 1.27 = 18.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonah Coleman is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.3 points, leaning on Jonah Coleman's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 18.0 carries, 56.0 rushing yards and 4.5 receptions against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 26.1 PPR points to RB1s, +67% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 23.3 to 28.9 (median 26.1).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 50 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.