RBs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 17 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | David Montgomery | RB1 | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| Woody Marks | RB2 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
| 2 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| Sione Vaki | RB2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.0 | ||
| Average | 11.5 | 40.3 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 0.5 | 15.1 | |||
| Median | 12.5 | 47.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 0.5 | 14.2 | |||
| High | 20 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 28.9 | |||
| Low | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How De'Von Achane should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game De'Von Achane has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot De'Von Achane will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus De'Von Achane's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than De'Von Achane usually produces.
Projected is De'Von Achane's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 11 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 2 | SF | 20 | 74 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Achane avg | 15.5 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 11.4 | |
| Bills All avg | 11.5 | 40.3 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 0.5 | 15.1 | |
| Difference | -4.0 | -14.8 | +0.5 | -2.3 | -0.8 | -1.8 | +0.5 | +3.6 | |
| Projected | 19.6 | 69.7 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 20.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Achane averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · De'Von AchaneMedium confidence · 20.1 proj ptsMust Start
De'Von Achane usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- De'Von Achane averages 11.4 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 11.5) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Bills have allowed 26.1 points to RB1s over 2 games (+67% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +27% adjustment.
- Last season's average (20.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 20.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDe'Von Achane vs the Bills
Prediction for De'Von Achane
Nobody knows which slot De'Von Achane will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 20.1 points for De'Von Achane if playing as a RB1. De'Von Achane has averaged 11.4 over 2 games, and the Bills have given up 26.1 to RB1s (+67% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. De'Von Achane scored: Wk 1 10.6, Wk 2 12.3. Average 11.4; weighted toward recent games it is 15.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 26.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +67%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +27% adjustment (x1.27).
4. Result. 15.9 x 1.27 = 20.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely De'Von Achane is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (20.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.1 points, leaning on De'Von Achane's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 11.5 carries, 40.3 rushing yards and 2.8 receptions per player-game against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 30.1 PPR points to the position per game, +43% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Sione Vaki (3.0 pts, 1 car, 7 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.1 vs 19.1; car 11.5 vs 15.0; rush yds 40.3 vs 51.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, David Montgomery (28.9 pts, 20 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.1 vs 10.4; car 11.5 vs 8.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.0 to 28.9 (median 14.2).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 player-games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.