RBs vs Carolina Panthers
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Panthers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 |
| 2 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| Average | 17.0 | 98.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 21.8 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 98.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 21.8 | ||
| High | 18 | 124 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 | ||
| Low | 16 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How J.K. Dobbins should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game J.K. Dobbins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot J.K. Dobbins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus J.K. Dobbins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than J.K. Dobbins usually produces.
Projected is J.K. Dobbins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 2 | JAX | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| Dobbins avg | 9.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | |
| Panthers RB2 avg | 10.5 | 75.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 14.5 | |
| Difference | +1.5 | +39.5 | +0.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | +20.0 | +0.0 | +10.9 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 11.7 | 46.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Dobbins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · J.K. DobbinsMedium confidence · 9.9 proj ptsFlex
J.K. Dobbins usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- J.K. Dobbins averages 3.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 3.6) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Panthers have allowed 14.5 points to RB2s over 2 games (+206% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 9.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJ.K. Dobbins vs the Panthers
Prediction for J.K. Dobbins
Nobody knows which slot J.K. Dobbins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 9.9 points for J.K. Dobbins if playing as a RB2. J.K. Dobbins has averaged 3.6 over 2 games, and the Panthers have given up 14.5 to RB2s (+206% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. J.K. Dobbins scored: Wk 1 3.6, Wk 2 3.6. Average 3.6; weighted toward recent games it is 7.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Panthers allowed 14.5 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +206%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 7.6 x 1.30 = 9.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely J.K. Dobbins is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.9 points, leaning on J.K. Dobbins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 17.0 carries, 98.0 rushing yards and 2.0 receptions against the Panthers across 2 games.
- The Panthers allow 21.8 PPR points to RB1s, +39% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.1 to 32.4 (median 21.8).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 70 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.