RBs vs Carolina Panthers
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Panthers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 |
| Average | 18.0 | 124.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 32.4 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 124.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 32.4 | ||
| High | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 | ||
| Low | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| Robinson avg | 18.5 | 77.5 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 49.5 | 0.5 | 21.2 | |
| Panthers RB2 avg | 10.0 | 100.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 20.4 | |
| Difference | -8.5 | +22.5 | +1.0 | -5.0 | -3.5 | -25.5 | -0.5 | -0.8 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 24.1 | 100.8 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 64.4 | 0.7 | 32.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Bijan RobinsonMedium confidence · 24.2 proj ptsMust Start
- Bijan Robinson averages 21.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 20.1) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Panthers have allowed 21.8 points to RB1s over 2 games (+39% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 24.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the Panthers
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 30.3 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 31.3 over 1 game, and the Panthers have given up 32.4 to RB1s (+85% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3. Average 31.3; weighted toward recent games it is 25.0.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Panthers allowed 32.4 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is +85%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +21% adjustment (x1.21).
4. Result. 25.0 x 1.21 = 30.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (30.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 18.2 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 30.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 18.0 carries, 124.0 rushing yards and 1.0 receptions against the Panthers across 1 game.
- The Panthers allow 32.4 PPR points to RB1s, +85% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.