RBs vs Carolina Panthers
As of Week 9 · through 7 games · PPR
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Panthers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | Kyle Monangai | 10 | 100 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 2 |  ATL | Brian Robinson | 11 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 3 |  CLE | Raheim Sanders | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 4 |  DET | Sione Vaki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 6 |  PHI | Carson Steele | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 7 |  TB | Sean Tucker | 7 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 8 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Average | 4.6 | 32.4 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 8.0 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 8.7 | ||
| High | 11 | 100 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 20.4 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonah Coleman should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonah Coleman has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonah Coleman's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonah Coleman usually produces.
Projected is Jonah Coleman's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JAX | 10 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 7 | ARI | 9 | 54 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 8 | KC | 11 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 20.4 |
| Coleman avg | 10.0 | 44.7 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 32.3 | 0.0 | 14.7 | |
| Panthers RB2 avg | 4.6 | 32.4 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 8.0 | |
| Difference | -5.4 | -12.2 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -17.5 | +0.0 | -6.7 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 13.0 | 58.1 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 19.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Coleman averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jonah ColemanMedium confidence · 18.0 proj pts7/10 start
Jonah Coleman usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jonah Coleman averages 14.7 PPR points over 3 games (recent-weighted 15.2) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Panthers have allowed 19.0 points to RB1s over 7 games (+18% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +13% adjustment.
- Game environment +2%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 23.5 points for DEN (league avg 22.6); Mild weather (64F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+3%): Opposing starter Will Lee III (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Bobby Okereke (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+1%): Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, which can mean extra looks for Coleman.
- Projection: 18.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonah Coleman vs the Panthers
Prediction for Jonah Coleman
Nobody knows which slot Jonah Coleman will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 17.1 points for Jonah Coleman if playing as a RB1. Jonah Coleman has averaged 14.7 over 3 games, and the Panthers have given up 19.0 to RB1s (+18% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonah Coleman scored: Wk 2 14.8, Wk 7 8.9, Wk 8 20.4. Average 14.7; weighted toward recent games it is 15.2.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Panthers allowed 19.0 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 15.2 x 1.13 = 17.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonah Coleman is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Jonah Coleman's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 4.6 carries, 32.4 rushing yards and 1.6 receptions against the Panthers across 7 games.
- The Panthers allow 8.0 PPR points to RB2s, +57% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kyle Monangai (20.4 pts, 100 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.0 vs 5.9; rush yds 32.4 vs 21.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Sione Vaki (2.7 pts, 0 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.0 vs 8.9; rush yds 32.4 vs 37.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.4 to 20.4 (median 8.7).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 7 games (29%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.