RBs vs Cincinnati Bengals
As of Week 9 · through 7 games · PPR
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Bengals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 3 |  PIT | Travis Homer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 5 |  MIA | Jaylen Wright | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| 7 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 17 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Average | 6.8 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.6 | ||
| High | 17 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 | GB | 29 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 4 | NO | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| 5 | BAL | 17 | 86 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 9 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 | SF | 20 | 63 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 17.2 |
| 8 | TB | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Robinson avg | 18.8 | 97.5 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 19.2 | |
| Bengals RB2 avg | 6.8 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | -11.9 | -78.2 | -0.3 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -21.9 | -0.1 | -15.2 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 15.9 | 82.9 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 21.6 | 0.1 | 14.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Bijan RobinsonGood confidence · 18.4 proj pts7/10 start
Bijan Robinson usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Bijan Robinson averages 19.2 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 16.0) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Bengals have allowed 15.8 points to RB1s over 7 games (-2% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -1% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.8) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +6%: Vegas total 52.5, implied 24.8 points for ATL (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- QB change: Michael Penix Jr. is now throwing (7.5 yds/att vs 7.3 earlier), x1.02.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Jordan Battle (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Cedric Johnson (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 18.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the Bengals
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 16.9 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 19.2 over 8 games, and the Bengals have given up 15.8 to RB1s (-2% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3, Wk 2 11.1, Wk 3 35.3, Wk 4 27.7, Wk 5 15.8, Wk 6 7.3, Wk 7 17.2, Wk 8 7.6. Average 19.2; weighted toward recent games it is 17.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bengals allowed 15.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 17.1 x 0.99 = 16.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.9 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 6.8 carries, 19.3 rushing yards and 0.7 receptions against the Bengals across 7 games.
- The Bengals allow 4.0 PPR points to RB2s, -22% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Chris Rodriguez Jr. (9.5 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 4.0 vs 2.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Derrick Henry (17 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 6.8 vs 4.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 9.5 (median 3.6).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.