RBs vs Denver Broncos
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| 2 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 13 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Average | 18.0 | 119.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 24.1 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 119.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 24.1 | ||
| High | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 | ||
| Low | 13 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaylen Warren should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaylen Warren has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylen Warren's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylen Warren usually produces.
Projected is Jaylen Warren's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 | NE | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| Warren avg | 10.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 30.5 | 0.0 | 10.0 | |
| Broncos All avg | 8.8 | 47.7 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 0.2 | 10.1 | |
| Difference | -1.7 | +3.2 | +0.3 | -3.0 | -2.2 | -20.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | |
| Projected | 12.8 | 54.2 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 37.1 | 0.0 | 14.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Warren averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaylen WarrenMedium confidence · 14.3 proj ptsStart
- Jaylen Warren averages 10.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.0) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Broncos have allowed 24.1 points to RB1s over 2 games (+54% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +22% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 14.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaylen Warren vs the Broncos
Prediction for Jaylen Warren
Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 14.3 points for Jaylen Warren if playing as a RB1. Jaylen Warren has averaged 10.0 over 2 games, and the Broncos have given up 24.1 to RB1s (+54% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaylen Warren scored: Wk 1 10.3, Wk 2 9.7. Average 10.0; weighted toward recent games it is 11.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Broncos allowed 24.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +54%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +22% adjustment (x1.22).
4. Result. 11.8 x 1.22 = 14.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaylen Warren is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.6 points, leaning on Jaylen Warren's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 18.0 carries, 119.0 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions against the Broncos across 2 games.
- The Broncos allow 24.1 PPR points to RB1s, +54% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.2 to 34.1 (median 24.1).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 60 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.