RBs vs Detroit Lions
As of Week 8 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Lions in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Travis Etienne | 9 | 46 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 2 |  BUF | James Cook | 21 | 135 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.9 |
| Average | 15.0 | 90.5 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 17.9 | ||
| Median | 15.0 | 90.5 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 17.9 | ||
| High | 21 | 135 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 20.9 | ||
| Low | 9 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Aaron Jones should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Aaron Jones has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Aaron Jones's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Aaron Jones usually produces.
Projected is Aaron Jones's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 2 | CHI | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| Jones avg | 17.5 | 72.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.3 | |
| Lions RB2 avg | 9.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Difference | -8.5 | -42.5 | +0.5 | -0.5 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | -1.3 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 21.4 | 88.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jones averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Aaron JonesLow confidence · 12.3 proj ptsStart
Aaron Jones usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Aaron Jones averages 10.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 10.3) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Lions have allowed 9.0 points to RB2s over 1 game (+89% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +22% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 12.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAaron Jones vs the Lions
Prediction for Aaron Jones
Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 12.3 points for Aaron Jones if playing as a RB2. Aaron Jones has averaged 10.3 over 2 games, and the Lions have given up 9.0 to RB2s (+89% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Aaron Jones scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 10.5. Average 10.3; weighted toward recent games it is 10.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Lions allowed 9.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +89%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +22% adjustment (x1.22).
4. Result. 10.1 x 1.22 = 12.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Aaron Jones is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.4 points, leaning on Aaron Jones's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.0 carries, 90.5 rushing yards and 4.0 receptions against the Lions across 2 games.
- The Lions allow 17.9 PPR points to RB1s, +14% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.8 to 20.9 (median 17.9).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.