RBs vs Green Bay Packers
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| Average | 12.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | ||
| Median | 12.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | ||
| High | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 | ||
| Low | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Breece Hall should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Breece Hall has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Breece Hall will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Breece Hall's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Breece Hall usually produces.
Projected is Breece Hall's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 22 | 102 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 19.8 |
| 2 | GB | 16 | 29 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Hall avg | 19.0 | 65.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 39.5 | 0.0 | 17.0 | |
| Packers RB2 avg | 12.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | |
| Difference | -7.0 | -25.5 | +0.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -39.5 | +0.0 | -7.0 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 23.4 | 80.6 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 48.6 | 0.0 | 18.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hall averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Breece HallMedium confidence · 13.8 proj ptsStart
Breece Hall usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Breece Hall averages 17.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 16.7) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Packers have allowed 13.1 points to RB1s over 2 games (-17% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.0) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 13.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBreece Hall vs the Packers
Prediction for Breece Hall
Nobody knows which slot Breece Hall will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 14.0 points for Breece Hall if playing as a RB1. Breece Hall has averaged 19.8 over 1 game, and the Packers have given up 11.9 to RB1s (-32% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Breece Hall scored: Wk 1 19.8. Average 19.8; weighted toward recent games it is 15.3.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Packers allowed 11.9 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -32%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 15.3 x 0.92 = 14.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Breece Hall is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.4 points, leaning on Breece Hall's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 12.0 carries, 40.0 rushing yards and 0.0 receptions against the Packers across 1 game.
- The Packers allow 10.0 PPR points to RB2s, +92% versus the league average of 5.2 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.