RBs vs Los Angeles Rams
As of Week 9 · through 1 game · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| Average | 10.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 13.8 | ||
| Median | 10.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 13.8 | ||
| High | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 | ||
| Low | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jacory Croskey-Merritt should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually produces.
Projected is Jacory Croskey-Merritt's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Croskey-Merritt avg | 14.0 | 53.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |
| Rams RB1 avg | 10.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 13.8 | |
| Difference | -4.0 | +15.0 | -0.5 | +7.0 | +4.0 | +21.0 | +0.0 | +4.6 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 13.6 | 51.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Croskey-Merritt averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jacory Croskey-MerrittLow confidence · 10.0 proj ptsFlex
Jacory Croskey-Merritt usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt averages 9.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 8.8) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Rams have allowed 8.0 points to RB2s over 1 game (+68% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.3) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 10.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJacory Croskey-Merritt vs the Rams
Prediction for Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Nobody knows which slot Jacory Croskey-Merritt will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 10.0 points for Jacory Croskey-Merritt if playing as a RB2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged 9.2 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 8.0 to RB2s (+68% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored: Wk 1 12.6, Wk 2 5.8. Average 9.2; weighted toward recent games it is 8.5.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Rams allowed 8.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +68%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 8.5 x 1.17 = 10.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jacory Croskey-Merritt is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.0 points, leaning on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 10.0 carries, 68.0 rushing yards and 5.0 receptions against the Rams across 1 game.
- The Rams allow 13.8 PPR points to RB1s, -12% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.