RBs vs Los Angeles Rams
As of Week 14 · through 1 game · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| Average | 10.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 13.8 | ||
| Median | 10.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 13.8 | ||
| High | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 | ||
| Low | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kaelon Black should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kaelon Black has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kaelon Black will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kaelon Black's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kaelon Black usually produces.
Projected is Kaelon Black's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 14 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 2 | MIA | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Black avg | 10.5 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |
| Rams RB2 avg | 14.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | |
| Difference | +3.5 | +20.0 | +0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +0.0 | +2.8 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 12.3 | 52.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 5.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Black averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Kaelon BlackLow confidence · 5.8 proj ptsSit
Kaelon Black usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Kaelon Black averages 5.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 4.9) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Rams have allowed 8.0 points to RB2s over 1 game (+68% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +17% adjustment.
- Projection: 5.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKaelon Black vs the Rams
Prediction for Kaelon Black
Nobody knows which slot Kaelon Black will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 5.8 points for Kaelon Black if playing as a RB2. Kaelon Black has averaged 5.3 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 8.0 to RB2s (+68% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kaelon Black scored: Wk 1 8.0, Wk 2 2.5. Average 5.3; weighted toward recent games it is 4.9.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Rams allowed 8.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +68%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 4.9 x 1.17 = 5.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kaelon Black is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.5 points, leaning on Kaelon Black's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 10.0 carries, 68.0 rushing yards and 5.0 receptions against the Rams across 1 game.
- The Rams allow 13.8 PPR points to RB1s, -12% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.