RBs vs Las Vegas Raiders
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | De'Von Achane | RB1 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 10.6 |
| Jaylen Wright | RB2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | ||
| 2 |  LAC | Omarion Hampton | RB1 | 23 | 94 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 17.5 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4.9 | ||
| Average | 10.0 | 38.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 8.2 | |||
| Median | 8.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | |||
| High | 23 | 94 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 17.5 | |||
| Low | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How CJ Donaldson should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game CJ Donaldson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot CJ Donaldson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus CJ Donaldson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than CJ Donaldson usually produces.
Projected is CJ Donaldson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | BAL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Donaldson avg | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | |
| Raiders All avg | 10.0 | 38.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 8.2 | |
| Difference | +8.5 | +35.3 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +17.5 | +0.0 | +7.5 | |
| Projected | 1.2 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Donaldson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · CJ DonaldsonMedium confidence · 0.5 proj ptsSit
CJ Donaldson usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- CJ Donaldson averages 0.7 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 0.6) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Raiders have allowed 2.4 points to RB2s over 2 games (-49% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -20% adjustment.
- Game environment +3%: Vegas total 43.5, implied 23.3 points for NO (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+0%): Opposing starter Treydan Stukes (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 0.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCJ Donaldson vs the Raiders
Prediction for CJ Donaldson
Nobody knows which slot CJ Donaldson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 0.5 points for CJ Donaldson if playing as a RB2. CJ Donaldson has averaged 0.7 over 2 games, and the Raiders have given up 2.4 to RB2s (-49% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. CJ Donaldson scored: Wk 1 1.2, Wk 2 0.2. Average 0.7; weighted toward recent games it is 0.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Raiders allowed 2.4 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -49%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -20% adjustment (x0.80).
4. Result. 0.6 x 0.80 = 0.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely CJ Donaldson is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (0.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.3 points, leaning on CJ Donaldson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 1.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 10.0 carries, 38.3 rushing yards and 1.8 receptions per player-game against the Raiders across 2 games.
- The Raiders allow 16.4 PPR points to the position per game, -22% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Omarion Hampton (17.5 pts, 23 car, 94 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.2 vs 5.1; car 10.0 vs 5.7; rush yds 38.3 vs 19.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jaylen Wright (-0.1 pts, 1 car, -1 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.2 vs 11.0; car 10.0 vs 13.0; rush yds 38.3 vs 51.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from -0.1 to 17.5 (median 7.8).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 player-games (25%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.