RBs vs Minnesota Vikings
As of Week 11 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Vikings in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 13 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 16 | 45 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 12.9 |
| Average | 14.5 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | ||
| Median | 14.5 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | ||
| High | 16 | 45 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 12.9 | ||
| Low | 13 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jordan James should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jordan James has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jordan James will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jordan James's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jordan James usually produces.
Projected is Jordan James's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MIA | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 |
| James avg | 4.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | |
| Vikings RB1 avg | 14.5 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | |
| Difference | +10.5 | +26.0 | +0.0 | +3.0 | +2.5 | +27.0 | +0.0 | +6.8 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 3.2 | 12.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what James averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jordan JamesLow confidence · 1.6 proj ptsSit
Jordan James usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jordan James averages 1.5 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 1.5) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Vikings have allowed 5.3 points to RB2s over 2 games (+13% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
- Projection: 1.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJordan James vs the Vikings
Prediction for Jordan James
Nobody knows which slot Jordan James will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 1.6 points for Jordan James if playing as a RB2. Jordan James has averaged 1.5 over 1 game, and the Vikings have given up 5.3 to RB2s (+13% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jordan James scored: Wk 2 1.5. Average 1.5; weighted toward recent games it is 1.5.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Vikings allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +13%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 1.5 x 1.05 = 1.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jordan James is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.9 points, leaning on Jordan James's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.5 carries, 41.0 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions against the Vikings across 2 games.
- The Vikings allow 8.3 PPR points to RB1s, -47% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.7 to 12.9 (median 8.3).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 30 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.