RBs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 9 · through 8 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jadarian Price | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 2 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 3 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 4 |  BUF | James Cook | 12 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 16.3 |
| 5 |  LV | Dylan Laube | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.5 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 17 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 7 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 22 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 8 |  MIA | Ollie Gordon II | 19 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Average | 13.8 | 59.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 12.6 | ||
| Median | 13.5 | 71.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 11.9 | ||
| High | 22 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 19.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Jacobs should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Jacobs has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Jacobs will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Jacobs's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Jacobs usually produces.
Projected is Josh Jacobs's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | DET | 11 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 55 | 1 | 20.1 |
| 8 | CAR | 21 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 23.2 |
| Jacobs avg | 16.0 | 37.5 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 34.0 | 1.0 | 21.6 | |
| Patriots RB1 avg | 13.8 | 59.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 12.6 | |
| Difference | -2.3 | +22.1 | +0.0 | -4.0 | -3.4 | -19.1 | -1.0 | -9.1 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 13.5 | 31.5 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 28.6 | 0.8 | 15.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jacobs averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Josh JacobsMedium confidence · 15.5 proj pts7/10 start
- Josh Jacobs averages 21.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 21.8) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Patriots have allowed 12.6 points to RB1s over 8 games (-22% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (15.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -4%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.8 points for GB (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (48F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Marcus Jones (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Carlton Davis III (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Jacobs.
- Projection: 15.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Jacobs vs the Patriots
Prediction for Josh Jacobs
Nobody knows which slot Josh Jacobs will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 15.8 points for Josh Jacobs if playing as a RB1. Josh Jacobs has averaged 21.6 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 12.6 to RB1s (-22% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Jacobs scored: Wk 7 20.1, Wk 8 23.2. Average 21.6; weighted toward recent games it is 18.8.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Patriots allowed 12.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 18.8 x 0.84 = 15.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Jacobs is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.5 points, leaning on Josh Jacobs's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.8 carries, 59.6 rushing yards and 2.1 receptions against the Patriots across 8 games.
- The Patriots allow 12.6 PPR points to RB1s, -22% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, D'Andre Swift (19.0 pts, 22 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.6 vs 11.7; car 13.8 vs 12.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Dylan Laube (4 car, 9 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 13.8 vs 15.1; rush yds 59.6 vs 66.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.9 to 19.0 (median 11.9).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 8 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.