RBs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 14 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| 2 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| Average | 22.5 | 112.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 25.6 | ||
| Median | 22.5 | 112.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 25.6 | ||
| High | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 | ||
| Low | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How AJ Dillon should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game AJ Dillon has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot AJ Dillon will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus AJ Dillon's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than AJ Dillon usually produces.
Projected is AJ Dillon's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | ATL | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Dillon avg | 4.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | |
| Saints RB1 avg | 22.5 | 112.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 25.6 | |
| Difference | +18.5 | +99.5 | +1.5 | +4.0 | +4.0 | +24.5 | +0.0 | +24.4 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 5.0 | 15.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Dillon averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · AJ DillonMedium confidence · 1.1 proj ptsSit
AJ Dillon usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- AJ Dillon averages 1.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 1.1) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Saints have allowed 3.3 points to RB2s over 2 games (-31% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -12% adjustment.
- Last season's average (1.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 1.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAJ Dillon vs the Saints
Prediction for AJ Dillon
Nobody knows which slot AJ Dillon will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 1.1 points for AJ Dillon if playing as a RB2. AJ Dillon has averaged 1.3 over 2 games, and the Saints have given up 3.3 to RB2s (-31% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. AJ Dillon scored: Wk 1 2.8, Wk 2 -0.3. Average 1.3; weighted toward recent games it is 1.3.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 3.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -31%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).
4. Result. 1.3 x 0.88 = 1.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely AJ Dillon is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.7 points, leaning on AJ Dillon's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 1.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 22.5 carries, 112.0 rushing yards and 4.0 receptions against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 25.6 PPR points to RB1s, +64% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 17.7 to 33.6 (median 25.6).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 60 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.