RBs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 9 · through 7 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB1 | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| Sione Vaki | RB2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.8 | ||
| 2 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | RB1 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| Justice Hill | RB2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
| 3 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | RB1 | 19 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | RB2 | 5 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.4 | ||
| 4 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | RB1 | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| Brian Robinson | RB2 | 14 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 25.7 | ||
| 5 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | RB1 | 25 | 113 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18.7 |
| DeeJay Dallas | RB2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 | ||
| Demond Claiborne | RB3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 | ||
| 6 |  NYG | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 1 | 18.5 |
| Devin Singletary | RB2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4.3 | ||
| Najee Harris | RB3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | ||
| 7 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | RB1 | 18 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 16.7 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB2 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 14.6 | ||
| Average | 10.8 | 52.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 16.5 | 0.1 | 13.2 | |||
| Median | 7.5 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 13.4 | |||
| High | 29 | 156 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 33.6 | |||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Quinshon Judkins should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Quinshon Judkins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Quinshon Judkins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Quinshon Judkins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Quinshon Judkins usually produces.
Projected is Quinshon Judkins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 12 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 2 | TB | 12 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 3 | CAR | 18 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 4 | PIT | 17 | 53 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 21.6 |
| 5 | NYJ | 14 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 7 | TEN | 17 | 96 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 23.4 |
| 8 | PIT | 11 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Judkins avg | 14.4 | 48.9 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 19.1 | 0.0 | 12.4 | |
| Saints All avg | 10.8 | 52.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 16.5 | 0.1 | 13.2 | |
| Difference | -3.7 | +3.8 | +0.3 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -2.6 | +0.1 | +0.9 | |
| Projected | 17.3 | 58.7 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 14.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Judkins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Quinshon JudkinsGood confidence · 14.8 proj pts7/10 start
Quinshon Judkins usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Quinshon Judkins averages 12.4 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 12.9) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Saints have allowed 20.7 points to RB1s over 7 games (+29% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.1) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -4%: Vegas total 42.5, implied 19.8 points for CLE (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Denzel Boston (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Judkins. Teammate Harold Fannin Jr. (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Judkins.
- Flag: Quarterback Deshaun Watson is questionable. Watch the status.
- Projection: 14.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreQuinshon Judkins vs the Saints
Prediction for Quinshon Judkins
Nobody knows which slot Quinshon Judkins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 15.3 points for Quinshon Judkins if playing as a RB1. Quinshon Judkins has averaged 12.4 over 7 games, and the Saints have given up 20.7 to RB1s (+29% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Quinshon Judkins scored: Wk 1 7.0, Wk 2 9.8, Wk 3 9.9, Wk 4 21.6, Wk 5 8.0, Wk 7 23.4, Wk 8 6.9. Average 12.4; weighted toward recent games it is 12.7.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Saints allowed 20.7 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +29%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 12.7 x 1.20 = 15.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Quinshon Judkins is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.0 points, leaning on Quinshon Judkins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 10.8 carries, 52.7 rushing yards and 2.1 receptions per player-game against the Saints across 7 games.
- The Saints allow 30.2 PPR points to the position per game, +37% versus the league average of 22.0 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jahmyr Gibbs (33.6 pts, 29 car, 156 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.2 vs 11.9; car 10.8 vs 9.5; rush yds 52.7 vs 45.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Bijan Robinson (27.7 pts, 19 car, 145 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.2 vs 12.3; car 10.8 vs 10.2; rush yds 52.7 vs 46.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 10 of 16 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.2 to 33.6 (median 13.4).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 7 of 16 player-games (44%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.