RBs vs New York Jets
As of Week 9 · through 8 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Jets in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Tony Pollard | 7 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 2 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8.6 |
| 3 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 20 | 99 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 41.4 |
| 4 |  CHI | Kyle Monangai | 30 | 146 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 28.0 |
| 5 |  CLE | Quinshon Judkins | 14 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 6 |  NE | Corey Kiner | 11 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 7 |  MIA | Ollie Gordon II | 25 | 103 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 8 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 10.3 |
| Average | 14.4 | 64.1 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 18.0 | 0.3 | 15.5 | ||
| Median | 12.5 | 50.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 9.4 | ||
| High | 30 | 146 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 41.4 | ||
| Low | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kenneth Walker III should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kenneth Walker III has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kenneth Walker III will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kenneth Walker III's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kenneth Walker III usually produces.
Projected is Kenneth Walker III's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| 2 | IND | 24 | 117 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 3 | MIA | 18 | 70 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21.3 |
| 4 | LV | 22 | 177 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 30.9 |
| 6 | LAC | 19 | 128 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 27.9 |
| 7 | SEA | 14 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 8 | DEN | 21 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12.4 |
| III avg | 20.1 | 110.0 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 18.7 | 0.3 | 22.9 | |
| Jets RB1 avg | 14.4 | 64.1 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 18.0 | 0.3 | 15.5 | |
| Difference | -5.8 | -45.9 | -0.2 | -1.6 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.0 | -7.4 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 19.6 | 106.8 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 18.2 | 0.3 | 17.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what III averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Kenneth Walker IIIGood confidence · 20.1 proj pts7/10 start
- Kenneth Walker III averages 22.9 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 20.1) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Jets have allowed 15.5 points to RB1s over 8 games (-4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.3) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +14%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 28.8 points for KC (league avg 22.6); Favored by 10: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (66F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Harrison Phillips (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Harrison Phillips (DL) is questionable, which helps the running game.
- Projection: 20.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKenneth Walker III vs the Jets
Prediction for Kenneth Walker III
Nobody knows which slot Kenneth Walker III will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 17.6 points for Kenneth Walker III if playing as a RB1. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 22.9 over 7 games, and the Jets have given up 15.5 to RB1s (-4% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kenneth Walker III scored: Wk 1 34.1, Wk 2 23.8, Wk 3 21.3, Wk 4 30.9, Wk 6 27.9, Wk 7 9.7, Wk 8 12.4. Average 22.9; weighted toward recent games it is 18.1.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Jets allowed 15.5 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 18.1 x 0.97 = 17.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kenneth Walker III is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.1 points, leaning on Kenneth Walker III's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 14.4 carries, 64.1 rushing yards and 2.3 receptions against the Jets across 8 games.
- The Jets allow 15.5 PPR points to RB1s, -4% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Kyle Monangai (28.0 pts, 30 car, 146 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.5 vs 13.7; car 14.4 vs 12.1; rush yds 64.1 vs 52.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Jahmyr Gibbs (41.4 pts, 99 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.5 vs 11.8; rush yds 64.1 vs 59.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.4 to 41.4 (median 9.4).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 8 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.