RBs vs Philadelphia Eagles
As of Week 17 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Eagles in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 16 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 2 |  TEN | Tyjae Spears | 7 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 9.0 |
| Average | 11.5 | 52.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 10.8 | ||
| Median | 11.5 | 52.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 10.8 | ||
| High | 16 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 12.6 | ||
| Low | 7 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Christian McCaffrey should do vs the EaglesSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Eagles, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Christian McCaffrey has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Eagles opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Eagles avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Christian McCaffrey's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Christian McCaffrey usually produces.
Projected is Christian McCaffrey's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Eagles were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 | MIA | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 22.6 |
| McCaffrey avg | 10.0 | 45.5 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 18.2 | |
| Eagles All avg | 8.7 | 36.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 6.1 | |
| Difference | -1.3 | -9.5 | -0.8 | -5.0 | -3.5 | -26.8 | +0.0 | -12.1 | |
| Projected | 8.8 | 39.9 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 27.6 | 0.0 | 18.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McCaffrey averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Christian McCaffreyMedium confidence · 18.9 proj ptsStart
- Christian McCaffrey averages 18.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 18.7) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Eagles have allowed 10.8 points to RB1s over 2 games (-31% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -12% adjustment.
- Last season's average (24.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 18.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChristian McCaffrey vs the Eagles
Prediction for Christian McCaffrey
Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Eagles.
I predict about 18.9 points for Christian McCaffrey if playing as a RB1. Christian McCaffrey has averaged 18.2 over 2 games, and the Eagles have given up 10.8 to RB1s (-31% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Christian McCaffrey scored: Wk 1 13.8, Wk 2 22.6. Average 18.2; weighted toward recent games it is 21.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Eagles allowed 10.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is -31%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).
4. Result. 21.6 x 0.88 = 18.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Christian McCaffrey is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.4 points, leaning on Christian McCaffrey's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 11.5 carries, 52.0 rushing yards and 1.5 receptions against the Eagles across 2 games.
- The Eagles allow 10.8 PPR points to RB1s, -31% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.0 to 12.6 (median 10.8).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.