RBs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
As of Week 18 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | RB1 | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| Brian Robinson | RB2 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
| 2 |  NE | TreVeyon Henderson | RB1 | 16 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB2 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.6 | ||
| Reggie Gilliam | RB3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
| Corey Kiner | RB4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 9.0 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 16.2 | 0.2 | 8.8 | |||
| Median | 7.5 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |||
| High | 21 | 83 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 | |||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Derrick Henry should do vs the SteelersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Steelers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Derrick Henry has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Steelers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Steelers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Derrick Henry's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Derrick Henry usually produces.
Projected is Derrick Henry's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Steelers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 | NO | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| Henry avg | 20.0 | 106.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 26.5 | |
| Steelers All avg | 9.0 | 38.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 16.2 | 0.2 | 8.8 | |
| Difference | -11.0 | -67.2 | -1.8 | +0.3 | -0.3 | -2.8 | +0.2 | -17.7 | |
| Projected | 23.5 | 124.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 22.3 | 0.0 | 24.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Henry averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Derrick HenryMedium confidence · 24.6 proj ptsMust Start
Derrick Henry usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Derrick Henry averages 26.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 25.5) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Steelers have allowed 22.4 points to RB1s over 2 games (+43% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 24.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDerrick Henry vs the Steelers
Prediction for Derrick Henry
Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Steelers.
I predict about 24.6 points for Derrick Henry if playing as a RB1. Derrick Henry has averaged 26.5 over 2 games, and the Steelers have given up 22.4 to RB1s (+43% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Derrick Henry scored: Wk 1 35.3, Wk 2 17.7. Average 26.5; weighted toward recent games it is 21.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Steelers allowed 22.4 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is +43%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 21.0 x 1.17 = 24.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Derrick Henry is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (24.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 14.8 points, leaning on Derrick Henry's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 25.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 9.0 carries, 38.8 rushing yards and 1.7 receptions per player-game against the Steelers across 2 games.
- The Steelers allow 26.5 PPR points to the position per game, +26% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Bijan Robinson (31.3 pts, 21 car, 83 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.8 vs 4.3; car 9.0 vs 6.6; rush yds 38.8 vs 30.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Reggie Gilliam (1.4 pts, 0 car, 0 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.8 vs 10.3; car 9.0 vs 10.8; rush yds 38.8 vs 46.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 31.3 (median 3.4).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.