RBs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 8 · through 2 games · PPR
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 15 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 12 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| Average | 13.5 | 56.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 8.5 | ||
| Median | 13.5 | 56.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 8.5 | ||
| High | 15 | 83 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9.0 | ||
| Low | 12 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 8.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Will Shipley should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Will Shipley has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Will Shipley will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Will Shipley's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Will Shipley usually produces.
Projected is Will Shipley's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 2 | TEN | 7 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Shipley avg | 4.5 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 3.6 | |
| Commanders RB1 avg | 13.5 | 56.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 8.5 | |
| Difference | +9.0 | +42.5 | +0.0 | +1.5 | +0.5 | +2.0 | +0.0 | +4.9 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 3.7 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Shipley averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Will ShipleyMedium confidence · 2.0 proj ptsSit
Will Shipley usually plays as the team's RB2, so the verdict uses the RB2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Will Shipley averages 3.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 3.7) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Commanders have allowed 1.5 points to RB2s over 2 games (-68% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -27% adjustment.
- Last season's average (1.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 2.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreWill Shipley vs the Commanders
Prediction for Will Shipley
Nobody knows which slot Will Shipley will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 2.0 points for Will Shipley if playing as a RB2. Will Shipley has averaged 3.6 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 1.5 to RB2s (-68% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Will Shipley scored: Wk 1 2.2, Wk 2 4.9. Average 3.6; weighted toward recent games it is 2.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 1.5 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is -68%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -27% adjustment (x0.73).
4. Result. 2.7 x 0.73 = 2.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Will Shipley is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.2 points, leaning on Will Shipley's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.5 carries, 56.5 rushing yards and 2.0 receptions against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 8.5 PPR points to RB1s, -46% versus the league average of 15.7 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.0 to 9.0 (median 8.5).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 30 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.