RBs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 15 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every RB who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | RB1 | 15 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.0 |
| Will Shipley | RB2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2 | ||
| Tank Bigsby | RB3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | ||
| 2 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | RB1 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| Emari Demercado | RB2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | ||
| Hunter Luepke | RB3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | ||
| Average | 5.7 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |||
| Median | 2.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | |||
| High | 15 | 83 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9.0 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0.1 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Bijan Robinson should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Bijan Robinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Bijan Robinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Bijan Robinson usually produces.
Projected is Bijan Robinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 21 | 83 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 31.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| Robinson avg | 18.5 | 77.5 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 49.5 | 0.5 | 21.2 | |
| Commanders All avg | 5.7 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Difference | -12.8 | -56.0 | +0.0 | -5.8 | -4.7 | -45.3 | -0.5 | -17.8 | |
| Projected | 15.1 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 40.5 | 0.4 | 17.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Robinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Bijan RobinsonMedium confidence · 17.1 proj ptsStart
Bijan Robinson usually plays as the team's RB1, so the verdict uses the RB1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Bijan Robinson averages 21.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 20.1) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Commanders have allowed 8.5 points to RB1s over 2 games (-46% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -18% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.8) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 17.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.0.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBijan Robinson vs the Commanders
Prediction for Bijan Robinson
Nobody knows which slot Bijan Robinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 17.1 points for Bijan Robinson if playing as a RB1. Bijan Robinson has averaged 21.2 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 8.5 to RB1s (-46% vs the league average of 15.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Bijan Robinson scored: Wk 1 31.3, Wk 2 11.1. Average 21.2; weighted toward recent games it is 20.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 8.5 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.7, so that is -46%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -18% adjustment (x0.82).
4. Result. 20.9 x 0.82 = 17.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Bijan Robinson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.3 points, leaning on Bijan Robinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all RBs have averaged 5.7 carries, 21.5 rushing yards and 0.8 receptions per player-game against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 10.2 PPR points to the position per game, -52% versus the league average of 21.0 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Saquon Barkley (9.0 pts, 15 car, 83 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 3.4 vs 2.3; car 5.7 vs 3.8; rush yds 21.5 vs 9.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Javonte Williams (12 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 5.7 vs 4.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.1 to 9.0 (median 1.5).
- all RBs scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.