TEs vs Atlanta Falcons
As of Week 12 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 15.6 |
| 2 |  CAR | Darren Waller | 3 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 18.3 |
| Average | 4.0 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 1.5 | 16.9 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 1.5 | 16.9 | ||
| High | 5 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 18.3 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 15.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How T.J. Hockenson should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game T.J. Hockenson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot T.J. Hockenson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus T.J. Hockenson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than T.J. Hockenson usually produces.
Projected is T.J. Hockenson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 5 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Hockenson avg | 4.5 | 3.5 | 32.5 | 0.5 | 9.8 | |
| Falcons All avg | 2.6 | 2.4 | 22.8 | 0.6 | 8.3 | |
| Difference | -1.9 | -1.1 | -9.7 | +0.1 | -1.5 | |
| Projected | 5.7 | 4.4 | 40.9 | 0.6 | 10.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hockenson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · T.J. HockensonMedium confidence · 10.6 proj ptsFlex
- T.J. Hockenson averages 9.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 9.3) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Falcons have allowed 16.9 points to TE1s over 2 games (+65% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +26% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 10.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreT.J. Hockenson vs the Falcons
Prediction for T.J. Hockenson
Nobody knows which slot T.J. Hockenson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 10.6 points for T.J. Hockenson if playing as a TE1. T.J. Hockenson has averaged 9.8 over 2 games, and the Falcons have given up 16.9 to TE1s (+65% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. T.J. Hockenson scored: Wk 1 13.6, Wk 2 5.9. Average 9.8; weighted toward recent games it is 8.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Falcons allowed 16.9 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +65%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +26% adjustment (x1.26).
4. Result. 8.4 x 1.26 = 10.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely T.J. Hockenson is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.4 points, leaning on T.J. Hockenson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 39.5 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving TDs against the Falcons across 2 games.
- The Falcons allow 16.9 PPR points to TE1s, +65% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 15.6 to 18.3 (median 16.9).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.