TEs vs Atlanta Falcons
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Pat Freiermuth | TE1 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 15.6 |
| Darnell Washington | TE2 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 | ||
| Average | 3.5 | 3.5 | 32.0 | 0.5 | 9.7 | |||
| Median | 3.5 | 3.5 | 32.0 | 0.5 | 9.7 | |||
| High | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 15.6 | |||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mitchell Evans should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mitchell Evans has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mitchell Evans will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mitchell Evans's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mitchell Evans usually produces.
Projected is Mitchell Evans's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | ATL | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Evans avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | |
| Falcons All avg | 3.5 | 3.5 | 32.0 | 0.5 | 9.7 | |
| Difference | +2.0 | +2.5 | +21.0 | +0.5 | +7.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Evans averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMitchell Evans vs the Falcons
Prediction for Mitchell Evans
Nobody knows which slot Mitchell Evans will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 3.5 points for Mitchell Evans if playing as a TE1. Mitchell Evans has averaged 1.9 over 1 game, and the Falcons have given up 15.6 to TE1s (+52% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mitchell Evans scored: Wk 1 1.9. Average 1.9; weighted toward recent games it is 3.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Falcons allowed 15.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +52%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 3.1 x 1.13 = 3.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mitchell Evans is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.1 points, leaning on Mitchell Evans's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 3.5 receptions, 32.0 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs per player-game against the Falcons across 1 game.
- The Falcons allow 19.4 PPR points to the position per game, +45% versus the league average of 13.3 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.8 to 15.6 (median 9.7).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 player-games (50%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.