TEs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Dalton Schultz | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 2 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 7 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 17.2 |
| Average | 7.5 | 5.0 | 43.5 | 0.5 | 12.3 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.0 | 43.5 | 0.5 | 12.3 | ||
| High | 8 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 17.2 | ||
| Low | 7 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Oliver should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Oliver has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Oliver will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Oliver's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Oliver usually produces.
Projected is Josh Oliver's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Oliver avg | 2.5 | 1.5 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | |
| Bills TE1 avg | 7.5 | 5.0 | 43.5 | 0.5 | 12.3 | |
| Difference | +5.0 | +3.5 | +20.5 | +0.5 | +8.6 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 24.8 | 0.0 | 4.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Oliver averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Josh OliverMedium confidence · 4.5 proj ptsSit
- Josh Oliver averages 3.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 3.8) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Bills have allowed 12.3 points to TE1s over 2 games (+20% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +8% adjustment.
- Last season's average (4.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 4.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Oliver vs the Bills
Prediction for Josh Oliver
Nobody knows which slot Josh Oliver will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 4.5 points for Josh Oliver if playing as a TE1. Josh Oliver has averaged 3.8 over 2 games, and the Bills have given up 12.3 to TE1s (+20% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Oliver scored: Wk 1 4.2, Wk 2 3.4. Average 3.8; weighted toward recent games it is 4.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 12.3 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +20%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 4.2 x 1.08 = 4.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Oliver is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.7 points, leaning on Josh Oliver's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 43.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 12.3 PPR points to TE1s, +20% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.5 to 17.2 (median 12.3).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.