TEs vs Cleveland Browns
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAX | Brenton Strange | TE1 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 10.3 |
| Nate Boerkircher | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 | ||
| Quintin Morris | TE3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 2 |  TB | Cade Otton | TE1 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 8.8 |
| Average | 2.8 | 2.0 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 5.3 | |||
| Median | 2.0 | 1.5 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 | |||
| High | 6 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 10.3 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Darren Waller should do vs the BrownsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Browns, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Darren Waller has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Browns opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Darren Waller will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Browns avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Darren Waller's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Darren Waller usually produces.
Projected is Darren Waller's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Browns were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2 | ATL | 3 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 18.3 |
| Waller avg | 2.5 | 2.5 | 30.5 | 1.0 | 11.6 | |
| Browns All avg | 2.8 | 2.0 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 5.3 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | -0.5 | -13.0 | -0.8 | -6.3 | |
| Projected | 2.4 | 2.4 | 29.6 | 1.0 | 11.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Waller averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Darren WallerMedium confidence · 11.3 proj ptsFlex
Darren Waller usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Darren Waller averages 11.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.3) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Browns have allowed 9.6 points to TE1s over 2 games (-7% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -0%: Vegas total 42.5, implied 22.5 points for CAR (league avg 22.5); Mild weather (70F, 4 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Projection: 11.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDarren Waller vs the Browns
Prediction for Darren Waller
Nobody knows which slot Darren Waller will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Browns.
I predict about 11.4 points for Darren Waller if playing as a TE1. Darren Waller has averaged 11.6 over 2 games, and the Browns have given up 9.6 to TE1s (-7% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Darren Waller scored: Wk 1 4.8, Wk 2 18.3. Average 11.6; weighted toward recent games it is 11.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Browns allowed 9.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 11.7 x 0.97 = 11.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Darren Waller is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.8 points, leaning on Darren Waller's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 2.0 receptions, 17.5 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs per player-game against the Browns across 2 games.
- The Browns allow 10.5 PPR points to the position per game, -19% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Brenton Strange (10.3 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.3 vs 3.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Cade Otton (5 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 2.0 vs 1.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 10.3 (median 5.4).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 player-games (25%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.