TEs vs Green Bay Packers
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| Average | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.5 | 0.5 | 8.7 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.5 | 0.5 | 8.7 | ||
| High | 5 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 13.6 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Austin Hooper should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Austin Hooper has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Austin Hooper will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Austin Hooper's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Austin Hooper usually produces.
Projected is Austin Hooper's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CAR | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Hooper avg | 4.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Packers TE1 avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.5 | 0.5 | 8.7 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | +1.0 | +6.5 | +0.5 | +4.7 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hooper averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Austin HooperMedium confidence · 4.0 proj ptsSit
- Austin Hooper averages 4.0 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 4.0) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Packers have allowed 8.7 points to TE1s over 2 games (-16% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -6% adjustment.
- Last season's average (4.6) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -5%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 19.0 points for ATL (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (57F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Brandon Cisse (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Edgerrin Cooper (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 4.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAustin Hooper vs the Packers
Prediction for Austin Hooper
Nobody knows which slot Austin Hooper will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 4.1 points for Austin Hooper if playing as a TE1. Austin Hooper has averaged 4.0 over 1 game, and the Packers have given up 8.7 to TE1s (-16% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Austin Hooper scored: Wk 2 4.0. Average 4.0; weighted toward recent games it is 4.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Packers allowed 8.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -6% adjustment (x0.94).
4. Result. 4.4 x 0.94 = 4.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Austin Hooper is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.5 points, leaning on Austin Hooper's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 26.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Packers across 2 games.
- The Packers allow 8.7 PPR points to TE1s, -16% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.7 to 13.6 (median 8.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.