TEs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Jaguars in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| Average | 3.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | ||
| High | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Adam Trautman should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Adam Trautman has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Adam Trautman will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Adam Trautman's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Adam Trautman usually produces.
Projected is Adam Trautman's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Trautman avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |
| Jaguars All avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -0.5 | +7.5 | +0.0 | +0.3 | |
| Projected | 2.8 | 1.9 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Trautman averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Adam TrautmanMedium confidence · 3.5 proj ptsSit
- Adam Trautman averages 3.0 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 3.0) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Jaguars have allowed 8.4 points to TE1s over 2 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (4.1) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAdam Trautman vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Adam Trautman
Nobody knows which slot Adam Trautman will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 3.2 points for Adam Trautman if playing as a TE1. Adam Trautman has averaged 3.0 over 1 game, and the Jaguars have given up 4.1 to TE1s (-60% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Adam Trautman scored: Wk 1 3.0. Average 3.0; weighted toward recent games it is 3.8.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Jaguars allowed 4.1 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -60%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 3.8 x 0.85 = 3.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Adam Trautman is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.9 points, leaning on Adam Trautman's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 21.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Jaguars across 1 game.
- The Jaguars allow 4.1 PPR points to TE1s, -60% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.