TEs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Jaguars in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| Average | 3.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | ||
| High | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Evan Engram should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Evan Engram has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Evan Engram will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Evan Engram's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Evan Engram usually produces.
Projected is Evan Engram's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 2 | JAX | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Engram avg | 3.0 | 2.5 | 30.0 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| Jaguars TE1 avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
| Difference | +0.0 | -0.5 | -9.0 | -0.5 | -4.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Engram averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreEvan Engram vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Evan Engram
Nobody knows which slot Evan Engram will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 7.7 points for Evan Engram if playing as a TE1. Evan Engram has averaged 14.3 over 1 game, and the Jaguars have given up 4.1 to TE1s (-60% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Evan Engram scored: Wk 1 14.3. Average 14.3; weighted toward recent games it is 9.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Jaguars allowed 4.1 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -60%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 9.1 x 0.85 = 7.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Evan Engram is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.6 points, leaning on Evan Engram's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 21.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Jaguars across 1 game.
- The Jaguars allow 4.1 PPR points to TE1s, -60% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.