TEs vs Kansas City Chiefs
As of Week 18 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Evan Engram | TE1 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 |
| Adam Trautman | TE2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3.0 | ||
| 2 |  IND | Tyler Warren | TE1 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 14.4 |
| Andrew Ogletree | TE2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 4.0 | 3.0 | 18.5 | 0.5 | 7.9 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 15.5 | 0.5 | 8.7 | |||
| High | 7 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 14.4 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ian Thomas should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ian Thomas has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ian Thomas will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ian Thomas's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ian Thomas usually produces.
Projected is Ian Thomas's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LAC | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Thomas avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | |
| Chiefs All avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | 18.5 | 0.5 | 7.9 | |
| Difference | +3.0 | +2.0 | +7.5 | +0.5 | +5.8 | |
| Projected | 1.2 | 1.2 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 3.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Thomas averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ian ThomasMedium confidence · 3.5 proj ptsSit
Ian Thomas usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Ian Thomas averages 2.1 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 2.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Chiefs have allowed 14.4 points to TE1s over 2 games (+40% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.5) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreIan Thomas vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Ian Thomas
Nobody knows which slot Ian Thomas will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 3.5 points for Ian Thomas if playing as a TE1. Ian Thomas has averaged 2.1 over 1 game, and the Chiefs have given up 14.4 to TE1s (+40% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ian Thomas scored: Wk 2 2.1. Average 2.1; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Chiefs allowed 14.4 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +40%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +16% adjustment (x1.16).
4. Result. 3.0 x 1.16 = 3.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ian Thomas is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.1 points, leaning on Ian Thomas's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 3.0 receptions, 18.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs per player-game against the Chiefs across 2 games.
- The Chiefs allow 15.9 PPR points to the position per game, +23% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Tyler Warren (14.4 pts, 6 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.9 vs 5.8; rec 3.0 vs 2.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Evan Engram (14.3 pts, 43 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.9 vs 5.8; yds 18.5 vs 10.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 14.4 (median 8.7).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 player-games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.