TEs vs Los Angeles Chargers
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ARI | Trey McBride | TE1 | 13 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 24.5 |
| Average | 13.0 | 9.0 | 95.0 | 1.0 | 24.5 | |||
| Median | 13.0 | 9.0 | 95.0 | 1.0 | 24.5 | |||
| High | 13 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 24.5 | |||
| Low | 13 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 24.5 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Mayer should do vs the ChargersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chargers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Mayer has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chargers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Mayer will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chargers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Mayer's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Mayer usually produces.
Projected is Michael Mayer's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chargers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 2 | LAC | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Mayer avg | 5.5 | 4.5 | 27.5 | 0.0 | 7.3 | |
| Chargers All avg | 13.0 | 9.0 | 95.0 | 1.0 | 24.5 | |
| Difference | +7.5 | +4.5 | +67.5 | +1.0 | +17.3 | |
| Projected | 6.5 | 5.3 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 7.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayer averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Michael MayerMedium confidence · 7.8 proj ptsSit
Michael Mayer usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Michael Mayer averages 7.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 7.0) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Chargers have allowed 14.9 points to TE1s over 2 games (+45% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +18% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Mayer vs the Chargers
Prediction for Michael Mayer
Nobody knows which slot Michael Mayer will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chargers.
I predict about 9.3 points for Michael Mayer if playing as a TE1. Michael Mayer has averaged 9.2 over 1 game, and the Chargers have given up 24.5 to TE1s (+138% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Mayer scored: Wk 1 9.2. Average 9.2; weighted toward recent games it is 7.2.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Chargers allowed 24.5 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +138%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 7.2 x 1.30 = 9.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Mayer is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.6 points, leaning on Michael Mayer's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 9.0 receptions, 95.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Chargers across 1 game.
- The Chargers allow 24.5 PPR points to the position per game, +84% versus the league average of 13.3 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 player-games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.