TEs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 15 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | AJ Barner | TE1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 2 |  PIT | Pat Freiermuth | TE1 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.4 |
| Darnell Washington | TE2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
| Average | 3.0 | 2.3 | 17.3 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | |||
| High | 5 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.4 | |||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Travis Kelce should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Travis Kelce has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Travis Kelce will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Travis Kelce's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Travis Kelce usually produces.
Projected is Travis Kelce's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 5 | 3 | 71 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 2 | IND | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 |
| Kelce avg | 8.0 | 6.0 | 86.0 | 0.5 | 17.6 | |
| Patriots All avg | 3.0 | 2.3 | 17.3 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
| Difference | -5.0 | -3.7 | -68.7 | -0.5 | -13.5 | |
| Projected | 6.5 | 4.8 | 69.5 | 0.4 | 12.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kelce averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Travis KelceMedium confidence · 12.0 proj ptsFlex
Travis Kelce usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Travis Kelce averages 17.6 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 18.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Patriots have allowed 5.3 points to TE1s over 2 games (-48% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -19% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.4) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 12.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTravis Kelce vs the Patriots
Prediction for Travis Kelce
Nobody knows which slot Travis Kelce will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 12.0 points for Travis Kelce if playing as a TE1. Travis Kelce has averaged 17.6 over 2 games, and the Patriots have given up 5.3 to TE1s (-48% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Travis Kelce scored: Wk 1 10.1, Wk 2 25.1. Average 17.6; weighted toward recent games it is 14.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Patriots allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -48%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -19% adjustment (x0.81).
4. Result. 14.9 x 0.81 = 12.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Travis Kelce is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.2 points, leaning on Travis Kelce's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 2.3 receptions, 17.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Patriots across 2 games.
- The Patriots allow 6.2 PPR points to the position per game, -52% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 3 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 7.4 (median 3.3).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.