TEs vs New England Patriots
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | AJ Barner | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| Average | 2.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | ||
| High | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Pat Freiermuth should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Pat Freiermuth has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Pat Freiermuth will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Pat Freiermuth's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Pat Freiermuth usually produces.
Projected is Pat Freiermuth's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 15.6 |
| 2 | NE | 5 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.4 |
| Freiermuth avg | 5.0 | 4.5 | 39.0 | 0.5 | 11.5 | |
| Patriots TE1 avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | |
| Difference | -3.0 | -2.5 | -26.0 | -0.5 | -8.2 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 32.4 | 0.4 | 8.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Freiermuth averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Pat FreiermuthMedium confidence · 7.5 proj ptsSit
- Pat Freiermuth averages 11.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 11.0) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Patriots have allowed 5.3 points to TE1s over 2 games (-48% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -19% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scorePat Freiermuth vs the Patriots
Prediction for Pat Freiermuth
Nobody knows which slot Pat Freiermuth will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 8.5 points for Pat Freiermuth if playing as a TE1. Pat Freiermuth has averaged 15.6 over 1 game, and the Patriots have given up 3.3 to TE1s (-68% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Pat Freiermuth scored: Wk 1 15.6. Average 15.6; weighted toward recent games it is 10.2.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Patriots allowed 3.3 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -68%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 10.2 x 0.83 = 8.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Pat Freiermuth is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.1 points, leaning on Pat Freiermuth's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 13.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Patriots across 1 game.
- The Patriots allow 3.3 PPR points to TE1s, -68% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.