TEs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 9 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | TE1 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 9.8 |
| Brock Wright | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | ||
| 2 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | TE1 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 10.9 |
| Durham Smythe | TE2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 4.3 | 3.0 | 25.5 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 5.7 | |||
| High | 8 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 10.9 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Harold Fannin Jr. should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Harold Fannin Jr. has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Harold Fannin Jr. will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Harold Fannin Jr.'s own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Harold Fannin Jr. usually produces.
Projected is Harold Fannin Jr.'s recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 | TB | 6 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| Jr. avg | 4.5 | 3.5 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 7.3 | |
| Saints All avg | 4.3 | 3.0 | 25.5 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Difference | -0.3 | -0.5 | -12.0 | +0.0 | -1.7 | |
| Projected | 4.5 | 3.5 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 9.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jr. averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Harold Fannin Jr.Medium confidence · 9.6 proj ptsSit
Harold Fannin Jr. usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Harold Fannin Jr. averages 7.3 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 7.6) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Saints have allowed 10.4 points to TE1s over 2 games (+1% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +0% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.7) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 9.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreHarold Fannin Jr. vs the Saints
Prediction for Harold Fannin Jr.
Nobody knows which slot Harold Fannin Jr. will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 9.6 points for Harold Fannin Jr. if playing as a TE1. Harold Fannin Jr. has averaged 7.3 over 2 games, and the Saints have given up 10.4 to TE1s (+1% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Harold Fannin Jr. scored: Wk 1 4.1, Wk 2 10.4. Average 7.3; weighted toward recent games it is 9.6.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 10.4 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 9.6 x 1.00 = 9.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Harold Fannin Jr. is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.8 points, leaning on Harold Fannin Jr.'s own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 3.0 receptions, 25.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 11.1 PPR points to the position per game, -14% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Mark Andrews (10.9 pts, 6 rec, 49 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.6 vs 3.8; rec 3.0 vs 2.0; yds 25.5 vs 17.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Durham Smythe (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.6 vs 7.4; rec 3.0 vs 4.0; yds 25.5 vs 34.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 10.9 (median 5.7).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 0 of 4 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.