TEs vs New York Giants
As of Week 3 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 | ||
| Luke Schoonmaker | TE3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.2 | ||
| Average | 1.7 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | |||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | |||
| High | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.2 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Gunnar Helm should do vs the GiantsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Gunnar Helm has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Gunnar Helm will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Gunnar Helm's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Gunnar Helm usually produces.
Projected is Gunnar Helm's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 5 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 2 | PHI | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| Helm avg | 3.5 | 3.0 | 20.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | |
| Giants All avg | 1.7 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | |
| Difference | -1.8 | -1.3 | -9.8 | +0.0 | -2.3 | |
| Projected | 2.9 | 2.5 | 17.1 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Helm averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Gunnar HelmLow confidence · 4.3 proj ptsSit
Gunnar Helm usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Gunnar Helm averages 5.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 4.9) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Giants have allowed 3.4 points to TE1s over 1 game (-67% vs league). The model applies 25% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (5.7) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -7%: Vegas total 42.5, implied 18.3 points for TEN (league avg 22.5); Underdog by 6: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (76F, 7 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+5%): Opposing starter Deonte Banks (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Paulson Adebo (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 4.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreGunnar Helm vs the Giants
Prediction for Gunnar Helm
Nobody knows which slot Gunnar Helm will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 4.4 points for Gunnar Helm if playing as a TE1. Gunnar Helm has averaged 5.0 over 2 games, and the Giants have given up 3.4 to TE1s (-67% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Gunnar Helm scored: Wk 1 6.8, Wk 2 3.3. Average 5.0; weighted toward recent games it is 5.3.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Giants allowed 3.4 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -67%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 5.3 x 0.83 = 4.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Gunnar Helm is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.6 points, leaning on Gunnar Helm's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 1.7 receptions, 10.7 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Giants across 1 game.
- The Giants allow 8.2 PPR points to the position per game, -36% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 3 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.2 to 3.4 (median 2.6).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.