TEs vs New York Jets
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Gunnar Helm | TE1 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 6.8 |
| Daniel Bellinger | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
| Average | 3.0 | 2.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |||
| High | 5 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 6.8 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tucker Kraft should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tucker Kraft has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tucker Kraft will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tucker Kraft's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tucker Kraft usually produces.
Projected is Tucker Kraft's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 6 | 3 | 65 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2 | NYJ | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Kraft avg | 4.5 | 2.5 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | |
| Jets All avg | 3.0 | 2.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 4.3 | |
| Difference | -1.5 | +0.0 | -22.5 | +0.0 | -2.3 | |
| Projected | 3.6 | 2.0 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kraft averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Tucker KraftMedium confidence · 8.3 proj ptsSit
Tucker Kraft usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Tucker Kraft averages 6.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Jets have allowed 5.2 points to TE1s over 2 games (-50% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 8.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTucker Kraft vs the Jets
Prediction for Tucker Kraft
Nobody knows which slot Tucker Kraft will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 11.8 points for Tucker Kraft if playing as a TE1. Tucker Kraft has averaged 9.5 over 1 game, and the Jets have given up 6.8 to TE1s (-34% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tucker Kraft scored: Wk 1 9.5. Average 9.5; weighted toward recent games it is 12.9.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Jets allowed 6.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -34%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 12.9 x 0.92 = 11.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tucker Kraft is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.1 points, leaning on Tucker Kraft's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 2.5 receptions, 17.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Jets across 1 game.
- The Jets allow 8.5 PPR points to the position per game, -36% versus the league average of 13.3 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 6.8 (median 4.3).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.