TEs vs New York Jets
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Gunnar Helm | TE1 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 6.8 |
| Daniel Bellinger | TE2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | ||
| 2 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | TE1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| Average | 3.0 | 2.3 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | |||
| High | 5 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 6.8 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Sam LaPorta should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Sam LaPorta has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Sam LaPorta will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Sam LaPorta's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Sam LaPorta usually produces.
Projected is Sam LaPorta's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 8 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2 | BUF | 7 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 17.2 |
| LaPorta avg | 7.5 | 5.5 | 50.0 | 0.5 | 13.5 | |
| Jets All avg | 3.0 | 2.3 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | -4.5 | -3.2 | -33.3 | -0.5 | -9.5 | |
| Projected | 6.0 | 4.4 | 40.0 | 0.4 | 11.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what LaPorta averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Sam LaPortaMedium confidence · 11.5 proj ptsFlex
Sam LaPorta usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Sam LaPorta averages 13.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 13.9) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Jets have allowed 5.2 points to TE1s over 2 games (-50% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.9) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +11%: Vegas total 48.5, implied 27.5 points for DET (league avg 22.5); Favored by 6.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Flag: 2 offensive linemen are out (Mahogany, Miller). Protection and run blocking may suffer.
- Projection: 11.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreSam LaPorta vs the Jets
Prediction for Sam LaPorta
Nobody knows which slot Sam LaPorta will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 10.3 points for Sam LaPorta if playing as a TE1. Sam LaPorta has averaged 13.5 over 2 games, and the Jets have given up 5.2 to TE1s (-50% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Sam LaPorta scored: Wk 1 9.8, Wk 2 17.2. Average 13.5; weighted toward recent games it is 12.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jets allowed 5.2 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -50%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -20% adjustment (x0.80).
4. Result. 12.9 x 0.80 = 10.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Sam LaPorta is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.2 points, leaning on Sam LaPorta's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 2.3 receptions, 16.7 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Jets across 2 games.
- The Jets allow 6.0 PPR points to the position per game, -53% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 3 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.7 to 6.8 (median 3.5).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 player-games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.