TEs vs Tennessee Titans
As of Week 13 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | TE1 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11.4 |
| Mason Taylor | TE2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 1.8 | ||
| Jeremy Ruckert | TE3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
| 2 |  PHI | Johnny Mundt | TE1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
| Average | 2.4 | 1.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | |||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | |||
| High | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11.4 | |||
| Low | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1.4 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chig Okonkwo should do vs the TitansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Titans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chig Okonkwo has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Titans opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chig Okonkwo will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Titans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chig Okonkwo's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chig Okonkwo usually produces.
Projected is Chig Okonkwo's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Titans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 3.6 |
| Okonkwo avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | |
| Titans All avg | 2.4 | 1.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | |
| Difference | -0.6 | -0.2 | -9.0 | +0.0 | +0.2 | |
| Projected | 2.6 | 1.8 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Okonkwo averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Chig OkonkwoMedium confidence · 5.3 proj ptsOut
Chig Okonkwo usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Chig Okonkwo averages 3.6 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 3.6) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Titans have allowed 7.1 points to TE1s over 2 games (-31% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -12% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.3) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Out. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 5.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChig Okonkwo vs the Titans
Prediction for Chig Okonkwo
Nobody knows which slot Chig Okonkwo will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Titans.
I predict about 5.3 points for Chig Okonkwo if playing as a TE1. Chig Okonkwo has averaged 3.6 over 1 game, and the Titans have given up 7.1 to TE1s (-31% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chig Okonkwo scored: Wk 1 3.6. Average 3.6; weighted toward recent games it is 6.1.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Titans allowed 7.1 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -31%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -12% adjustment (x0.88).
4. Result. 6.1 x 0.88 = 5.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chig Okonkwo is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.2 points, leaning on Chig Okonkwo's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 1.8 receptions, 7.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Titans across 2 games.
- The Titans allow 9.4 PPR points to the position per game, -27% versus the league average of 12.9 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kenyon Sadiq (11.4 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 3.8 vs 1.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 5 player-games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.4 to 11.4 (median 1.8).
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 5 player-games (20%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.