TEs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing every TE who had a role in each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | TE1 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| Average | 5.0 | 4.0 | 77.0 | 2.0 | 23.7 | |||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 77.0 | 2.0 | 23.7 | |||
| High | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 | |||
| Low | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jake Ferguson should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jake Ferguson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jake Ferguson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jake Ferguson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jake Ferguson usually produces.
Projected is Jake Ferguson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | WAS | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| Ferguson avg | 3.0 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 1.0 | 11.5 | |
| Commanders All avg | 5.0 | 4.0 | 77.0 | 2.0 | 23.7 | |
| Difference | +2.0 | +1.0 | +52.5 | +1.0 | +12.2 | |
| Projected | 3.9 | 3.9 | 31.9 | 1.3 | 15.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ferguson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jake FergusonMedium confidence · 15.3 proj ptsStart
Jake Ferguson usually plays as the team's TE1, so the verdict uses the TE1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jake Ferguson averages 11.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 12.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Commanders have allowed 22.0 points to TE1s over 2 games (+114% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 15.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJake Ferguson vs the Commanders
Prediction for Jake Ferguson
Nobody knows which slot Jake Ferguson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 10.7 points for Jake Ferguson if playing as a TE1. Jake Ferguson has averaged 2.6 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 23.7 to TE1s (+130% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jake Ferguson scored: Wk 1 2.6. Average 2.6; weighted toward recent games it is 8.2.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Commanders allowed 23.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +130%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 8.2 x 1.30 = 10.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jake Ferguson is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.4 points, leaning on Jake Ferguson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- all TEs have averaged 4.0 receptions, 77.0 receiving yards and 2.0 receiving TDs per player-game against the Commanders across 1 game.
- The Commanders allow 23.7 PPR points to the position per game, +78% versus the league average of 13.3 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- all TEs scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 player-games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.