TEs vs Washington Commanders
As of Week 18 · through 2 games · PPR
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| Average | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | ||
| High | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brevyn Spann-Ford should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brevyn Spann-Ford has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brevyn Spann-Ford's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brevyn Spann-Ford usually produces.
Projected is Brevyn Spann-Ford's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| Spann-Ford avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Commanders TE1 avg | 4.5 | 4.0 | 60.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | |
| Difference | +2.5 | +2.0 | +46.0 | +2.0 | +18.6 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Spann-Ford averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brevyn Spann-FordMedium confidence · 3.6 proj ptsSit
- Brevyn Spann-Ford averages 3.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 3.4) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Commanders have allowed 22.0 points to TE1s over 2 games (+114% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.4) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 19.6.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrevyn Spann-Ford vs the Commanders
Prediction for Brevyn Spann-Ford
Nobody knows which slot Brevyn Spann-Ford will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 3.6 points for Brevyn Spann-Ford if playing as a TE1. Brevyn Spann-Ford has averaged 3.4 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 22.0 to TE1s (+114% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brevyn Spann-Ford scored: Wk 1 3.4. Average 3.4; weighted toward recent games it is 2.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Commanders allowed 22.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +114%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 2.7 x 1.30 = 3.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brevyn Spann-Ford is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.1 points, leaning on Brevyn Spann-Ford's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 60.0 receiving yards and 2.0 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 2 games.
- The Commanders allow 22.0 PPR points to TE1s, +114% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 20.3 to 23.7 (median 22.0).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.