WRs vs Atlanta Falcons
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Roman Wilson | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| Average | 6.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| High | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 | ||
| Low | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jalen Coker should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jalen Coker has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jalen Coker will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jalen Coker's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jalen Coker usually produces.
Projected is Jalen Coker's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 9 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 33.8 |
| 2 | ATL | 9 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 14.6 |
| Coker avg | 9.0 | 8.0 | 102.0 | 1.0 | 24.2 | |
| Falcons WR3 avg | 6.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Difference | -3.0 | -5.0 | -76.0 | -1.0 | -18.6 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 108.9 | 1.1 | 17.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Coker averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jalen CokerMedium confidence · 18.0 proj ptsStart
Jalen Coker usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Jalen Coker averages 24.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 23.1) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Falcons have allowed 11.3 points to WR2s over 2 games (+36% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +15% adjustment.
- Last season's average (8.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 18.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJalen Coker vs the Falcons
Prediction for Jalen Coker
Nobody knows which slot Jalen Coker will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 16.6 points for Jalen Coker if playing as a WR2. Jalen Coker has averaged 33.8 over 1 game, and the Falcons have given up 8.0 to WR2s (-2% vs the league average of 8.2).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jalen Coker scored: Wk 1 33.8. Average 33.8; weighted toward recent games it is 16.7.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Falcons allowed 8.0 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.2, so that is -2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -1% adjustment (x0.99).
4. Result. 16.7 x 0.99 = 16.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jalen Coker is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.0 points, leaning on Jalen Coker's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 26.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Falcons across 1 game.
- The Falcons allow 5.6 PPR points to WR3s, +27% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.