WRs vs Buffalo Bills
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Nico Collins | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 21.2 |
| Average | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 21.2 | ||
| Median | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 21.2 | ||
| High | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 21.2 | ||
| Low | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 21.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| Brown avg | 13.5 | 9.5 | 104.5 | 2.0 | 32.0 | |
| Bills WR1 avg | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 21.2 | |
| Difference | -3.5 | -2.5 | -29.5 | -1.0 | -10.8 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 111.0 | 2.1 | 23.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Amon-Ra St. BrownMedium confidence · 32.5 proj ptsMust Start
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 32.0 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 32.3) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Bills have allowed 28.2 points to WR1s over 2 games (+66% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +27% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 32.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Bills
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 23.6 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR1. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 28.7 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 21.2 to WR1s (+25% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7. Average 28.7; weighted toward recent games it is 22.3.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Bills allowed 21.2 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +25%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 22.3 x 1.06 = 23.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (23.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 14.2 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 24.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 7.0 receptions, 75.0 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Bills across 1 game.
- The Bills allow 21.2 PPR points to WR1s, +25% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.