WRs vs Chicago Bears
As of Week 14 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Jalen Coker | 9 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 33.8 |
| 2 |  MIN | Justin Jefferson | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| Average | 7.5 | 5.5 | 96.5 | 1.0 | 21.1 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.5 | 96.5 | 1.0 | 21.1 | ||
| High | 9 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 33.8 | ||
| Low | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ryan Miller should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ryan Miller has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ryan Miller will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ryan Miller's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ryan Miller usually produces.
Projected is Ryan Miller's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SF | 1 | 1 | 77 | 1 | 14.7 |
| Miller avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 77.0 | 1.0 | 14.7 | |
| Bears Top 3 avg | 5.2 | 3.0 | 48.2 | 0.3 | 9.5 | |
| Difference | +4.2 | +2.0 | -28.8 | -0.7 | -5.2 | |
| Projected | 1.1 | 1.1 | 84.6 | 1.1 | 7.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Miller averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ryan MillerMedium confidence · 7.5 proj ptsSit
- Ryan Miller averages 14.7 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 14.7) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Bears have allowed 21.1 points to WR1s over 2 games (+25% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.9) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreRyan Miller vs the Bears
Prediction for Ryan Miller
Nobody knows which slot Ryan Miller will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 7.5 points for Ryan Miller if playing as a WR1. Ryan Miller has averaged 14.7 over 1 game, and the Bears have given up 21.1 to WR1s (+25% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ryan Miller scored: Wk 2 14.7. Average 14.7; weighted toward recent games it is 6.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bears allowed 21.1 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +25%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 6.8 x 1.10 = 7.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ryan Miller is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.5 points, leaning on Ryan Miller's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.5 receptions, 96.5 receiving yards and 1.0 receiving TDs against the Bears across 2 games.
- The Bears allow 21.1 PPR points to WR1s, +25% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.5 to 33.8 (median 21.1).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 50 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.