WRs vs Chicago Bears
As of Week 3 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Jalen Coker | WR1 | 9 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 33.8 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR2 | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 10.5 | ||
| Xavier Legette | WR3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| 2 |  MIN | Justin Jefferson | WR1 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| Jordan Addison | WR2 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 | ||
| Myles Price | WR3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Average | 5.2 | 3.0 | 48.2 | 0.3 | 9.5 | |||
| Median | 5.5 | 2.5 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | |||
| High | 9 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 33.8 | |||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Makai Lemon should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Makai Lemon has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Makai Lemon will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Makai Lemon's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Makai Lemon usually produces.
Projected is Makai Lemon's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 4 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | TEN | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Lemon avg | 2.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | |
| Bears Top 3 avg | 5.2 | 3.0 | 48.2 | 0.3 | 9.5 | |
| Difference | +2.7 | +1.0 | +43.7 | +0.3 | +7.3 | |
| Projected | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lemon averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Makai LemonMedium confidence · 1.6 proj ptsSit
Makai Lemon usually plays as the team's WR3, so the verdict uses the WR3 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Makai Lemon averages 2.2 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 2.2) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Bears have allowed 0.0 points to WR3s over 2 games (-100% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -30% adjustment.
- Game environment +2%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 24.0 points for PHI (league avg 22.5); Favored by 3.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (66F, 6 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 1.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMakai Lemon vs the Bears
Prediction for Makai Lemon
Nobody knows which slot Makai Lemon will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 1.5 points for Makai Lemon if playing as a WR3. Makai Lemon has averaged 2.2 over 2 games, and the Bears have given up 0.0 to WR3s (-100% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Makai Lemon scored: Wk 1 2.5, Wk 2 1.9. Average 2.2; weighted toward recent games it is 2.2.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bears allowed 0.0 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is -100%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -30% adjustment (x0.70).
4. Result. 2.2 x 0.70 = 1.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Makai Lemon is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.9 points, leaning on Makai Lemon's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.0 receptions, 48.2 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs per player-game against the Bears across 2 games.
- The Bears allow 28.4 PPR points to the position per game, -5% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jalen Coker (33.8 pts, 8 rec, 138 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 4.6; rec 3.0 vs 2.0; yds 48.2 vs 30.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Xavier Legette (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 11.4; rec 3.0 vs 3.6; yds 48.2 vs 57.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 33.8 (median 6.3).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 player-games (17%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.