WRs vs Cincinnati Bengals
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Bengals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Emeka Egbuka | 6 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 11.3 |
| Average | 6.0 | 5.0 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 11.3 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 5.0 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 11.3 | ||
| High | 6 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 11.3 | ||
| Low | 6 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 11.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Xavier Hutchinson should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Xavier Hutchinson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Xavier Hutchinson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Xavier Hutchinson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Xavier Hutchinson usually produces.
Projected is Xavier Hutchinson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 2 | CIN | 9 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Hutchinson avg | 7.5 | 3.0 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 6.5 | |
| Bengals WR3 avg | 3.0 | 3.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | |
| Difference | -4.5 | +0.0 | +1.5 | +0.0 | +0.1 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 38.8 | 0.0 | 7.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hutchinson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Xavier HutchinsonMedium confidence · 7.3 proj ptsSit
Xavier Hutchinson usually plays as the team's WR3, so the verdict uses the WR3 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Xavier Hutchinson averages 6.5 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 6.5) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Bengals have allowed 6.0 points to WR3s over 2 games (+31% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.5) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreXavier Hutchinson vs the Bengals
Prediction for Xavier Hutchinson
Nobody knows which slot Xavier Hutchinson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 7.2 points for Xavier Hutchinson if playing as a WR3. Xavier Hutchinson has averaged 6.2 over 1 game, and the Bengals have given up 6.6 to WR3s (+50% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Xavier Hutchinson scored: Wk 1 6.2. Average 6.2; weighted toward recent games it is 6.4.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Bengals allowed 6.6 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +50%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +12% adjustment (x1.12).
4. Result. 6.4 x 1.12 = 7.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Xavier Hutchinson is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.3 points, leaning on Xavier Hutchinson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 63.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bengals across 1 game.
- The Bengals allow 11.3 PPR points to WR1s, -34% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.