WRs vs Detroit Lions
As of Week 2 · through 1 game · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Chris Olave | WR1 | 13 | 10 | 182 | 0 | 28.2 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR2 | 9 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 19.9 | ||
| Bryce Lance | WR3 | 4 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 7.2 | ||
| Average | 8.7 | 6.7 | 97.7 | 0.3 | 18.4 | |||
| Median | 9.0 | 7.0 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 19.9 | |||
| High | 13 | 10 | 182 | 1 | 28.2 | |||
| Low | 4 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 7.2 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Keon Coleman should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Keon Coleman has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Keon Coleman will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Keon Coleman's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Keon Coleman usually produces.
Projected is Keon Coleman's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | DET | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 12.3 |
| Coleman avg | 3.5 | 3.5 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | |
| Lions Top 3 avg | 8.7 | 6.7 | 97.7 | 0.3 | 18.4 | |
| Difference | +5.2 | +3.2 | +65.7 | +0.3 | +11.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Coleman averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKeon Coleman vs the Lions
Prediction for Keon Coleman
Nobody knows which slot Keon Coleman will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 7.0 points for Keon Coleman if playing as a WR3. Keon Coleman has averaged 1.1 over 1 game, and the Lions have given up 7.2 to WR3s (+64% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Keon Coleman scored: Wk 1 1.1. Average 1.1; weighted toward recent games it is 6.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Lions allowed 7.2 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +64%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +16% adjustment (x1.16).
4. Result. 6.1 x 1.16 = 7.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Keon Coleman is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.2 points, leaning on Keon Coleman's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 6.7 receptions, 97.7 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs per player-game against the Lions across 1 game.
- The Lions allow 55.3 PPR points to the position per game, +87% versus the league average of 29.6 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Chris Olave (28.2 pts, 10 rec, 182 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.4 vs 13.5; rec 6.7 vs 5.0; yds 97.7 vs 55.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Bryce Lance (7.2 pts, 3 rec, 42 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.4 vs 24.0; rec 6.7 vs 8.5; yds 97.7 vs 125.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.2 to 28.2 (median 19.9).
- Every player-game in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 player-games (33%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.